Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 110 | 26 | 425 |
| STL | 013 | 214 | 010 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Jack Roslovic, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:58WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 11:16STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 13:36STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 9:04WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Jansen Harkins · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:49WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:28STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P1 12:16WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:35WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23WPGSami Niku: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Harkins – Roslovic13:23
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton12:28
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine13:44
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore5:12
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Morrissey2:07
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Pionk3:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Niku2:18
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Steen – Bozak – Blais4:57
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Steen – Bozak – Barbashev3:11
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Barbashev – Blais3:12
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford13:50
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk2:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn10:00
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Parayko18:18
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).