Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 110 | 16 | 226 |
| MIN | 313 | 015 | 19 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01MINBrad HuntAssists: Kevin Fiala, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 10:39MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 16:20MINKevin FialaPPGWGAssists: Brad Hunt, Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 10:33VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 14:33MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 18:29VANAntoine RousselPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:32MINJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:32VANJake Virtanen: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:57VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:14MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:26VANLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:19MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 5:51VANZack MacEwen: Interference2 min
- P2 10:09VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:09MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:09MINJared Spurgeon: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:51VANAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:33VANAdam Gaudette: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:04MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Roussel – Virtanen5:07
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sutter – Miller – Boeser2:23
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – MacEwen7:34
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Fantenberg9:14
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher12:38
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Stecher – Hughes2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Donato – Kunin8:59
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:46
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Hartman7:17
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello9:58
xG 0.02–0.25 (8%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:37
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:39
xG 0.88–0.71 (55%)attempts 20–20goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Hunt8:29
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).