Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 215 | 210 | 26 | 631 |
| EDM | 212 | 010 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04EDMSam GagnerAssists: Darnell Nurse, Kailer Yamamoto · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:20EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 11:01SJSTimo MeierAssists: Brent Burns, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 18:19SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 7:07SJSMaxim LetunovAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marcus Sorensen · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 12:31SJSStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Alexander True, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 5:05SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 6:33EDMEthan BearUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 12:19SJSKevin LabancAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Throwing equipment2 min
- P1 13:21SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:33EDMOscar Klefbom: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:37SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:37EDMOscar Klefbom: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Labanc – Meier11:26
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Sorensen – Letunov – Gambrell6:03
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Noesen – Karlsson – True8:09
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kane – Goodrow13:43
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson17:12
xG 1.34–0.52 (72%)attempts 25–11goals 3–0
- Burns – Dillon20:20
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Ferraro – Simek7:37
xG 0.40–0.87 (31%)attempts 5–15goals 0–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Archibald – McDavid6:59
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira3:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Gagner – Kassian – McDavid5:37
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Benson – Haas6:10
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:25
xG 1.12–0.92 (55%)attempts 23–14goals 3–1
- Benning – Lagesson9:34
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Larsson – Lagesson2:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).