Fri, Feb 7, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 08 | 315 | 00 | 430 |
| TOR | 110 | 217 | 14 | 14 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:36ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Cam Fowler, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:38TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:18TORAuston MatthewsAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 8:34ANAMax JonesSHAssists: Carter Rowney · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 12:47ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ondrej Kase, Troy Terry · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 16:33TORJason SpezzaAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:02ANADerek GrantAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–4
- OT 4:53TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:36ANAMax Jones: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:54ANADerek Grant: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:36TORDmytro Timashov: Holding2 min
- P2 2:08ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:31TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:39TORKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:51ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30TORKyle Clifford: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- OT 3:56ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell8:14
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase3:37
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones4:08
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Rakell – Terry4:38
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Fowler7:20
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Lindholm5:48
xG 0.15–0.07 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson12:29
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Marner – Matthews11:05
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Kapanen9:38
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Gauthier – Engvall – Timashov4:48
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Kerfoot9:47
xG 0.18–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Dermott16:57
xG 0.91–0.33 (74%)attempts 13–20goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Holl17:13
xG 0.66–0.62 (51%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin8:38
xG 0.18–0.21 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).