Fri, Feb 7, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 116 | 16 | 328 |
| NYR | 06 | 010 | 223 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 15:16BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel, Jimmy Vesey · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 11:56BUFJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 17:07NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 18:20NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:21NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P3 3:18BUFHenri Jokiharju: Holding2 min
- P3 18:02BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Lazar – Rodrigues6:05
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel12:39
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Girgensons10:35
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Johansson – Sheary10:15
xG 0.20–0.68 (22%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Dahlin12:12
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- McCabe – Jokiharju17:28
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Montour19:14
xG 0.64–1.35 (32%)attempts 22–24goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:05
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Lemieux – Chytil5:54
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin3:41
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Lemieux – Chytil2:32
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:49
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Staal – DeAngelo11:05
xG 0.66–0.25 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba17:42
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).