Fri, Feb 7, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 29 | 110 | 331 |
| DAL | 116 | 19 | 08 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 2:51DALDenis GurianovSHAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Ben Bishop · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 8:25MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Ryan Suter, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:09MINRyan DonatoAssists: Luke Kunin, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 19:33MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jordan Greenway · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:23MINLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:28MINJonas Brodin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:16DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:50MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:55DALAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:22DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DALCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:18
xG 0.90–0.28 (76%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Staal – Parise – Fiala4:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fiala – Donato – Kunin6:27
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Donato – Kunin2:23
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:10
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Suter – Spurgeon13:26
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Brodin2:28
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:05
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Janmark3:55
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Hintz5:34
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:37
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Heiskanen12:50
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:21
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Polak – Lindell2:26
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).