Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 014 | 11 | 01 | 123 |
| MTL | 07 | 04 | 116 | 13 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:06TORJohn TavaresAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 17:27MTLMarco ScandellaAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Nate Thompson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 1:43MTLIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:46MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:25TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03MTLVictor Mete: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:52TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – Matthews2:16
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Kapanen7:34
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Kerfoot11:36
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Marner – Matthews12:14
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Holl18:22
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Sandin2:07
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Dermott17:14
xG 0.49–0.62 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cousins – Evans4:35
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault14:59
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi7:48
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki14:02
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ouellet9:22
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak16:12
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Mete16:15
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).