Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 39 | 38 | 726 |
| WSH | 111 | 09 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:18WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:45PHIMichael RafflAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Slap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 2:59PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 4:30PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Matt Niskanen, Tyler Pitlick · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 2:58PHINicolas Aube-KubelUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 5:47PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–1
- P3 8:02PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.21 xG7–1
- P3 12:17WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: T.J. Oshie, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 15:13WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49PHIBrian Elliott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:48PHISean Couturier: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:52PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:52WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:55PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:58PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:53WSHRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:31WSHRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:17WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 7:00WSHGarnet Hathaway: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:00PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:00WSHBrendan Leipsic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny8:46
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman5:35
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier10:23
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Frost6:35
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Hagg13:28
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Provorov12:33
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Myers12:55
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik9:41
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson2:59
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom8:28
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana6:22
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Fehérváry12:57
xG 0.72–0.36 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Gudas – Siegenthaler10:12
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Kempny13:23
xG 0.26–0.87 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).