Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 010 | 26 | 222 |
| CBJ | 09 | 17 | 016 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:30CBJSeth JonesPPAssists: Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 11:45COLNazem KadriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 15:26COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:19CBJRiley Nash: Holding2 min
- P1 5:51COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P1 9:33CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:33COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P1 14:42COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 7:45COLTyson Jost: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:54COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P3 2:53COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:39
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Calvert – Donskoi – Compher6:29
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin8:38
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Jost4:05
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar8:35
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar4:13
xG 0.27–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Makar2:07
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Robinson4:23
xG 0.83–0.30 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Atkinson – Jenner7:05
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Stenlund – Robinson2:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Milano – Stenlund – Bemstrom2:24
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov13:37
xG 1.23–0.30 (80%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Nutivaara – Peeke7:05
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski12:37
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).