Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 19 | 010 | 229 |
| EDM | 07 | 116 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 17:06NSHNick BoninoAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 19:51EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 3:42EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 13:02EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:33EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:17NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:33EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 18:38NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00EDMSam Gagner: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:13EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P3 11:13NSHMikael Granlund: Embellishment2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45NSHJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min
- P3 14:46NSHMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Granlund12:17
xG 1.45–0.70 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi7:52
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Sissons – Trenin6:03
xG 0.01–0.01 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:42
xG 0.20–0.82 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Tinordi14:33
xG 1.34–0.88 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber7:25
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro18:26
xG 0.54–0.70 (44%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:13
xG 1.10–0.32 (78%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Kassian – Benson – Haas4:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira9:26
xG 0.28–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – McDavid9:29
xG 0.37–1.47 (20%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom14:16
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Benning – Jones9:04
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear16:51
xG 0.96–1.54 (38%)attempts 19–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).