Sat, Feb 8, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 013 | 412 | 02 | 2 | 634 |
| VGK | 213 | 19 | 212 | 04 | 0 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:26VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Theodore, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:35VGKJon MerrillAssists: William Carrier, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 19:31CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 0:59VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Reilly Smith, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 1:19CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 2:17VGKChandler StephensonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 4:16CARErik HaulaSHAssists: Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 10:48CARHaydn FleuryAssists: Brock McGinn, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 13:58CARMartin NecasSHAssists: Jake Gardiner, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 16:07VGKCody EakinAssists: Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 5. CAR Justin Williams scored
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:31VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:05VGKZach Whitecloud: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:49CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P3 12:58VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:01CARJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:29
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Williams – Haula – Dzingel2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele9:07
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas9:12
xG 0.20–0.77 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Fleury13:30
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Pesce16:27
xG 0.64–1.17 (35%)attempts 15–21goals 1–2
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk18:26
xG 0.30–1.53 (16%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:35
xG 1.37–0.08 (95%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy8:46
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch10:19
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault12:38
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Whitecloud15:23
xG 1.43–0.24 (86%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Holden – Theodore17:00
xG 1.36–0.27 (84%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:47
xG 0.44–0.94 (32%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).