Sun, Feb 9, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 014 | 114 | 140 |
| DET | 06 | 17 | 27 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:07DETBrendan PerliniAssists: Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 0:33BOSTorey KrugAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 7:10DETAndreas AthanasiouPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:31DETAndreas AthanasiouENAssists: Christoffer Ehn, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:01BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:55BOSSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:15DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P1 13:57DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:10DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:04DETPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P3 6:01BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:53
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Wagner – Heinen – Lindholm5:09
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Bjork7:19
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:06
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – McAvoy2:38
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Moore – Grzelcyk10:22
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Krug2:42
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Bertuzzi – Hirose10:45
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Filppula – Erne – Perlini6:03
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith4:06
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Larkin – Fabbri6:05
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Lindstrom9:09
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Green – Hronek13:57
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Biega – Nemeth14:05
xG 0.36–0.88 (29%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).