Sun, Feb 9, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 010 | 07 | 226 |
| WPG | 010 | 112 | 414 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Drake Caggiula, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:58CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Seeler · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 3:44WPGKyle ConnorSHAssists: Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.45 xG2–1
- P3 9:04WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Connor Hellebuyck · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 13:27WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:37WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–4
- P3 19:40WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:40CHIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:44CHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:46WPGSami Niku: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:50WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:50CHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:26WPGAnthony Bitetto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:27CHIKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:17WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:39CHISlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P3 8:48CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:08CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kubalik – Caggiula9:35
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Highmore7:09
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Dach9:15
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kampf5:38
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson13:49
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Seeler – Murphy11:00
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek10:05
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton8:25
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic10:06
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore3:19
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine13:27
xG 0.40–0.92 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Beaulieu2:53
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Morrissey2:26
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Niku2:00
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).