Sun, Feb 9, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 316 | 07 | 333 |
| MIN | 011 | 215 | 010 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:37COLPierre-Edouard BellemareSHAssists: Matt Calvert, Ryan Graves · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:58MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Zach Parise, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:22COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 10:36COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Ian Cole, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 17:31MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:41COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:48MINGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:43MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:42COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:49COLJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:59COLNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:17COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:17MINLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Landeskog – Compher7:56
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Jost6:45
xG 0.39–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin2:54
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:05
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar14:13
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov12:58
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar2:25
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Zucker – Kunin4:43
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Hartman4:54
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato2:17
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:46
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:32
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 28–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:18
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Soucy12:36
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).