Mon, Feb 10, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 010 | 011 | 131 |
| PHI | 111 | 213 | 110 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:58PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Matt Niskanen, Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:24PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Justin Braun · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 19:08PHITravis SanheimAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Scott Laughton · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 18:51PHIClaude GirouxENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.45 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:59PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:28FLAJayce Hawryluk: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:08PHIRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33FLANoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P3 3:53PHITyler Pitlick: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:52FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:35PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P3 16:05FLAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:32PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:06
xG 0.47–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano7:40
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari7:20
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman11:20
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Yandle – Brown8:00
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad9:30
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRaffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman6:54
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Frost7:36
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny9:13
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier9:09
xG 0.03–0.38 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers14:48
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov11:29
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Braun – Hagg10:19
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).