Mon, Feb 10, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 06 | 011 | 11 | 230 |
| CBJ | 08 | 115 | 09 | 00 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:44CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Emil Bemstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 0:31TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:29TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:29CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:10TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:10CBJNathan Gerbe: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:10TBLLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:34CBJNick Foligno: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:21CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51TBLLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:21TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:32CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli12:46
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens7:48
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:08
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Joseph6:11
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak10:23
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman8:29
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev6:36
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Foudy8:39
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Milano – Stenlund – Bemstrom7:23
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Robinson7:41
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Dubois12:29
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Nutivaara16:24
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov17:06
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Harrington – Peeke11:02
xG 0.31–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).