Mon, Feb 10, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 219 | 07 | 238 |
| VAN | 316 | 27 | 19 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06VANZack MacEwenAssists: J.T. Miller, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:44VANBrandon SutterPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 13:51VANJordie BennGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 0:58VANTanner PearsonAssists: Elias Pettersson, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 5:59NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 7:05NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Dante Fabbro, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P2 18:00VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 2:32VANJake VirtanenPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:58NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:46VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:01VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01VANTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:27VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:09NSHColton Sissons: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 5:40NSHViktor Arvidsson: Bench2 min
- P3 7:50NSHJarred Tinordi: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:02VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:00NSHDan Hamhuis: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:00VANJake Virtanen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:14VANAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:14VANAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:14VANAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:14NSHJarred Tinordi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Watson – Sissons8:16
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:09
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Johansen – Granlund4:37
xG 0.07–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Forsberg – Arvidsson4:40
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi9:40
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro4:09
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro8:53
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Virtanen – Pettersson6:29
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Bailey6:57
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette8:17
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Horvat – MacEwen8:11
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher13:04
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Tanev – Hughes10:05
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Myers – Benn13:09
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).