Mon, Feb 10, 2020·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 315 | 114 | 28 | 637 |
| SJS | 110 | 113 | 013 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 4:39CGYTobias RiederAssists: Mark Jankowski, Zac Rinaldo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 9:23CGYZac RinaldoGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P1 12:47SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 4:51SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 10:46CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Milan Lucic, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 1:26CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–2
- P3 14:08CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:09SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:43CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:43SJSStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:43SJSStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:15CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54SJSEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:14SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:12SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18SJSStefan Noesen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:18SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:01
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Jankowski8:50
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube11:34
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:21
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson12:36
xG 1.35–0.57 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Stone – Brodie18:38
xG 1.06–0.79 (57%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington5:10
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Noesen – Goodrow2:03
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Sorensen – Karlsson3:31
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Letunov – Gambrell – True2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sorensen – Letunov – Gambrell4:57
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Dillon18:02
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Karlsson15:11
xG 1.05–1.09 (49%)attempts 27–14goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Simek11:26
xG 0.09–0.97 (8%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).