Tue, Feb 11, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 316 | 09 | 533 |
| NJD | 18 | 27 | 013 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Damon Severson, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:50FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:14FLAMike MathesonAssists: Noel Acciari, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 2:43FLAMark PysykAssists: Mike Matheson, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 4:17NJDKevin RooneyAssists: Joey Anderson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 4:59FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 5:38FLANoel AcciariAssists: Mark Pysyk, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P2 14:30NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Will Butcher, Connor Carrick · Snap, 0.13 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:27FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:16FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P2 16:56NJDMirco Mueller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:16NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Connolly – Trocheck8:09
xG 0.80–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Toninato – Vatrano7:29
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Connolly – Trocheck2:57
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:49
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad13:08
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Yandle – Brown10:40
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman11:08
xG 0.14–0.68 (17%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hughes10:22
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson6:41
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev12:42
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha11:09
xG 0.19–1.48 (11%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Subban15:19
xG 0.79–0.58 (57%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Carrick – Butcher9:45
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 2–2
- Severson – Butcher8:03
xG 0.11–0.31 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).