Tue, Feb 11, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 014 | 04 | 026 |
| MIN | 28 | 212 | 05 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30MINJoel Eriksson EkPPGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:44MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 9:11MINKevin FialaAssists: Zach Parise, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 15:47MINZach ParisePPAssists: Eric Staal, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:30MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:30VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:30MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:37VGKJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:36VGKJonathan Marchessault: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09MINMarcus Foligno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:41MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:11MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:25VGKMark Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:54VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:31VGKRyan Reaves: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Karlsson5:27
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Eakin – Karlsson – Tuch4:52
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Eakin – Nosek5:12
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault8:32
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt9:51
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Theodore5:52
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Holden – McNabb2:57
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Fiala8:30
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato9:44
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:27
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Galchenyuk – Kunin9:13
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:58
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Hunt – Soucy14:02
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon12:06
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).