Tue, Feb 11, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 110 | 211 | 432 |
| WPG | 013 | 012 | 119 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25NYRChris KreiderAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:30NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P3 0:53NYRRyan StromeAssists: Jesper Fast, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 1:28NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 4:35WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Sami Niku, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:12NYRTony DeAngelo: Interference2 min
- P2 0:16NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:14WPGGabriel Bourque: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31WPGPatrik Laine: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:31NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:34NYRKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin11:40
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:39
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko7:28
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Howden5:40
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo11:57
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:08
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Skjei – Trouba14:49
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Shaw – Shore4:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Harkins – Appleton2:45
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Roslovic3:59
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic3:19
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk3:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Morrissey2:13
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Niku3:06
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).