Tue, Feb 11, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 09 | 07 | 125 |
| DAL | 112 | 217 | 18 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54DALJamie BennAssists: Stephen Johns, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:38CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:36DALDenis GurianovPPGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:06DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:41DALJamie BennENUnassisted · Other, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:33DALRadek Faksa: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:42CARMartin Necas: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:41CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:55CARBrock McGinn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:40CARJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:23
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn4:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Wallmark2:42
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas6:38
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Pesce14:38
xG 0.64–0.93 (41%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk16:46
xG 0.37–0.90 (29%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Fleury12:31
xG 0.22–0.85 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Seguin – Hintz9:55
xG 1.13–0.10 (92%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov7:05
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Kiviranta8:39
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson3:16
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Oleksiak13:29
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Johns – Heiskanen13:56
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:52
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).