Tue, Feb 11, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 111 | 018 | 341 |
| EDM | 213 | 213 | 15 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13EDMRiley SheahanAssists: Zack Kassian, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 5:56CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:19CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 17:18EDMKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 1:45CHIAdam BoqvistAssists: Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 3:38EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P2 4:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
- P3 19:57EDMLeon DraisaitlENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:13CHIAlex DeBrincat: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:19CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58CHIZack Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07EDMRiley Sheahan: Holding2 min
- P2 12:12EDMOscar Klefbom: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:12EDMRiley Sheahan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Saad – Dach8:22
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Highmore3:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula6:56
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Smith – Carpenter – Caggiula2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Koekkoek12:07
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson16:28
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Keith – Boqvist13:48
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Sheahan – Archibald11:16
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:45
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Khaira – Cave – Russell7:57
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas7:27
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom17:17
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:23
xG 0.05–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Benning – Jones9:01
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).