Wed, Feb 12, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 19 | 010 | 129 |
| BOS | 111 | 215 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 4:16BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 4:52MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:45BOSDavid PastrnakPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 19:40BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:32MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:48BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:48MTLJeff Petry: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:48BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38BOSDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:32MTLJonathan Drouin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:32BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:14MTLJoel Armia: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:19BOSCharlie McAvoy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:18MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Thompson – Cousins – Lehkonen2:02
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi6:25
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Thompson – Cousins – Evans5:23
xG 0.01–0.11 (8%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:58
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Mete11:15
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Ouellet2:04
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak15:25
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:30
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork8:14
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman9:59
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly8:26
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo12:33
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:13
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy13:04
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).