Wed, Feb 12, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 114 | 216 | 338 |
| LAK | 013 | 211 | 39 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:37CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:21LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 13:00LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Trevor Lewis, Kurtis MacDermid · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 1:42LAKKurtis MacDermidAssists: Dustin Brown, Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 3:25CGYElias LindholmAssists: Derek Ryan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 15:12LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Martin Frk · Slap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 16:55CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:57LAKSean WalkerENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:48LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:23LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:41LAKAlec Martinez: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:28LAKAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:57CGYRasmus Andersson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:49
xG 1.14–0.62 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Ryan3:19
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:08
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube5:44
xG 0.02–0.31 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Yelesin10:23
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie17:14
xG 0.92–0.87 (51%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:49
xG 1.17–1.34 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo10:48
xG 1.08–0.50 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Brown – Moore – Lizotte6:11
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Carter – Frk – Kempe9:04
xG 0.65–0.74 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Lewis – Amadio – Wagner5:52
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Walker14:49
xG 1.04–0.74 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:24
xG 0.68–1.05 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).