Thu, Feb 13, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 111 | 18 | 02 | 331 |
| BUF | 08 | 17 | 29 | 13 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:32CBJNathan GerbeAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:31CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Liam Foudy · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 18:47BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:10BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:34BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Jeff Skinner, Carter Hutton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:47CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:44BUFVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P3 1:00CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55BUFJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:55BUFJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:55CBJEric Robinson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Foudy14:09
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Milano – Stenlund – Bemstrom8:41
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Dubois12:17
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Nash – Robinson11:24
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov17:17
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Harrington – Peeke12:57
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Nutivaara – Peeke2:44
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons12:18
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues8:43
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Vesey – Lazar8:28
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:49
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin11:57
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:24
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- McCabe – Jokiharju16:27
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).