Thu, Feb 13, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 39 | 114 | 25 | 628 |
| FLA | 011 | 08 | 29 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Matt Niskanen, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 17:37PHITyler PitlickAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:32PHINicolas Aube-KubelGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.30 xG3–0
- P2 18:58PHIScott LaughtonAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 0:33FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 4:56FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Keith Yandle, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 14:52PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 19:32PHIRobert HaggPPAssists: Michael Raffl, Justin Braun · Slap, 0.28 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:12FLAJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
- P1 11:46FLADominic Toninato: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:00PHIJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P3 19:04PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:04FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRaffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman9:06
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Laughton9:03
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier12:28
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee12:54
xG 0.63–0.86 (42%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Hagg11:49
xG 1.33–0.25 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Sanheim – Myers8:50
xG 0.83–0.32 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hagg – Myers4:39
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano2:54
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov16:39
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Connolly – Toninato – Vatrano2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Toninato – Vatrano2:36
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Stillman2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman8:05
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Weegar2:05
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).