Thu, Feb 13, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 010 | 210 | 03 | 2 | 431 |
| MIN | 211 | 16 | 06 | 03 | 0 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49MINRyan DonatoAssists: Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:52NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 16:43MINJonas BrodinAssists: Jordan Greenway, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:53MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Jonas Brodin, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 11:51NYRPavel BuchnevichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:54NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 2. MIN Ryan Donato stopped
- 3. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 4. MIN Zach Parise stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:42NYRBrendan Lemieux: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:42MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:54NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:54MINRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:03MINCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:15NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin10:35
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:20
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko8:44
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- McKegg – Lemieux – Howden6:55
xG 0.09–0.57 (13%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Fox2:36
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Smith – DeAngelo12:20
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:20
xG 0.13–0.48 (22%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:01
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato7:37
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk2:03
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Galchenyuk – Kunin8:40
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:00
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Soucy13:17
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:12
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).