Thu, Feb 13, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 6, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 416 | 111 | 15 | 632 |
| ANA | 012 | 018 | 014 | 044 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Michael Stone, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:10CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 13:39CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 19:05CGYMark JankowskiAssists: TJ Brodie, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 16:46CGYMikael BacklundSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.26 xG5–0
- P3 6:55CGYMark JankowskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:11ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:49CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:40CGYZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:40ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:53CGYSam Bennett: Charging2 min
- P2 11:54ANANicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min
- P2 15:02CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31CGYZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:11
xG 1.09–0.40 (73%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:19
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube9:01
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Jankowski – Bennett8:24
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie12:55
xG 1.26–0.48 (72%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:30
xG 0.95–0.93 (50%)attempts 19–21goals 3–0
- Brodie – Kylington2:16
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Terry11:24
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Jones8:11
xG 0.24–0.49 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney5:29
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Shore6:58
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Guhle16:08
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Larsson13:24
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Fowler14:29
xG 0.87–1.72 (34%)attempts 19–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).