Fri, Feb 14, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 111 | 018 | 135 |
| PIT | 08 | 312 | 18 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:25PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 18:00PITJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 19:06MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Victor Mete, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:42PITJason ZuckerAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:16PITZachary Aston-ReeseENAssists: Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:29PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:35MTLIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:29MTLBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:41PITZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:22PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:57MTLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:57
xG 0.91–0.22 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lehkonen – Evans7:08
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki8:38
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Drouin – Domi9:13
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak14:38
xG 1.15–0.71 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Mete13:19
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Scandella – Ouellet13:12
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:56
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – McCann11:08
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Agozzino – Lafferty5:19
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Simon13:11
xG 0.57–1.28 (31%)attempts 8–19goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Riikola8:41
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel2:38
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).