Fri, Feb 14, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 07 | 210 | 328 |
| CBJ | 06 | 122 | 09 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 18:52CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Scott Harrington · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 16:49NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 18:49NYRRyan StromeENAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:58CBJEric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:34NYRPavel Buchnevich: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:34NYRPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min
- P3 14:47CBJJakob Lilja: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:21CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:59
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko8:18
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- McKegg – Lemieux – Howden4:20
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin12:35
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:32
xG 0.86–0.50 (64%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Smith10:06
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba17:38
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bjorkstrand – Stenlund9:53
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Foligno – Jenner10:28
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Milano – Stenlund – Bemstrom3:26
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Milano – Dubois – Bemstrom6:09
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Peeke15:35
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara15:56
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov16:36
xG 0.39–0.77 (33%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).