Fri, Feb 14, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 011 | 211 | 335 |
| WPG | 03 | 211 | 018 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Alexander True, Dylan Gambrell · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 8:21WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 9:47WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:18SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joel Kellman, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 6:47SJSTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:51WPGGabriel Bourque: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 2:34WPGGabriel Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:33SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 11:09SJSStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:54WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P3 6:55WPGJack Roslovic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:55SJSMarcus Sorensen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:17SJSEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:00SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSorensen – Gambrell – True5:52
xG 0.84–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Labanc – Meier9:03
xG 1.08–0.29 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kane – Goodrow12:24
xG 0.94–0.67 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman7:04
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon15:45
xG 1.55–0.50 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Simek8:09
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson12:32
xG 0.69–0.86 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Copp – Ehlers – Roslovic2:31
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton2:35
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Copp – Ehlers5:18
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic3:00
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sbisa – Beaulieu9:35
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk16:31
xG 0.92–1.31 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Poolman13:38
xG 0.34–1.39 (20%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).