Fri, Feb 14, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 08 | 118 | 237 |
| CAR | 28 | 114 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Haydn Fleury, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 7:07NJDMirco MuellerAssists: Travis Zajac, Nikita Gusev · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 11:23CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Brett Pesce, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 13:46CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 1:44CARMartin NecasUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:36CARJoel EdmundsonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 14:57NJDJoey AndersonAssists: Nick Merkley · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:13CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 1:15NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 14:28NJDWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:28CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:17CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:05CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMerkley – Rooney – Anderson8:20
xG 0.91–0.08 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hughes8:58
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev12:36
xG 0.58–0.66 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha11:21
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMueller – White10:29
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Severson – Butcher13:43
xG 0.95–0.73 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 0–2
- Greene – Subban12:09
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:42
xG 0.92–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Necas10:32
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele6:47
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele3:34
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce14:11
xG 0.84–0.27 (75%)attempts 18–8goals 3–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk12:44
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce2:22
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).