Sat, Feb 15, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 08 | 012 | 126 |
| BOS | 018 | 312 | 111 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12DETDarren HelmSHUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 8:01BOSCharlie McAvoyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:40BOSPatrice BergeronSHGWGAssists: Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 12:30BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Danton Heinen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 13:03BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.34 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:25DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 18:28DETAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:25BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:10BOSJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P3 16:39DETAndreas Athanasiou: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:39BOSChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Perlini – Ehn6:46
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri10:55
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:56
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi8:29
xG 0.22–0.96 (19%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Lindstrom4:06
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Green – Hronek13:39
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Daley – Lindstrom6:34
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman11:42
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:38
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly7:45
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork10:52
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Lauzon14:31
xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo14:08
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).