Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 215 | 17 | 15 | 427 |
| STL | 07 | 310 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:23NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 4:13STLZachary SanfordAssists: Sammy Blais, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 4:34NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Matt Duchene, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 6:18STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, David Perron · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 10:50STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- P3 3:59NSHMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:54STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:54NSHFilip Forsberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59NSHJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:13NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:34STLZachary Sanford: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:50STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:59NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:46NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P3 3:42STLCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:08STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:06STLSammy Blais: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:06NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:17
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Granlund – Arvidsson7:55
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons6:40
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Duchene – Forsberg7:02
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Tinordi12:35
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro8:58
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:16
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Steen – Kyrou – Thomas4:00
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais2:11
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford9:46
xG 0.00–0.23 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bozak – Schenn – Schwartz6:25
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko10:34
xG 0.56–0.09 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn5:41
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn2:57
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).