Sat, Feb 15, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 06 | 312 | 429 |
| FLA | 010 | 09 | 115 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 0:13EDMLeon DraisaitlSHGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 8:45FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:02EDMDarnell NurseUnassisted · Slap, 0.00 xG3–1
- P3 19:14EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:43EDMJujhar Khaira: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:17EDMMatt Benning: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:17FLANoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:17FLANoel Acciari: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:58FLAJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:43EDMJosh Archibald: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:01EDMKailer Yamamoto: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto15:18
xG 1.96–0.30 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas7:44
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Khaira – Cave – Russell7:33
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Benson7:43
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:03
xG 1.32–0.28 (82%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:34
xG 1.18–0.45 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones2:33
xG 0.12–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov2:43
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Barkov – Vatrano4:59
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano3:29
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Toninato4:34
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman11:58
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad2:34
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown8:08
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).