Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 2, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 06 | 27 | 221 |
| MIN | 010 | 014 | 015 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:08SJSDylan GambrellGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Antti Suomela · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 19:45SJSMelker KarlssonENAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:57SJSMario Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:05MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:13MINCarson Soucy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:28MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:28SJSKevin Labanc: Illegal stick2 min
- P3 12:58SJSAntti Suomela: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGambrell – True – Suomela5:10
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Karlsson – Kellman8:25
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Noesen – Goodrow11:12
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Thornton – Labanc – Meier10:54
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Heed – Ferraro10:07
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon15:20
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Simek16:35
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 8–26goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:27
xG 0.49–0.01 (98%)attempts 17–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Galchenyuk – Kunin10:12
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Fiala13:54
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato6:36
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:38
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy9:42
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:44
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).