Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 211 | 15 | 12 | 426 |
| MTL | 111 | 210 | 08 | 03 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Max Domi, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 3:58MTLJordan WealAssists: Nick Suzuki, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 6:23MTLNick CousinsAssists: Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 9:05DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 15:47DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 9:08DALBlake ComeauAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 2:52DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 9:44MTLBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:54MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Janmark – Robertson10:26
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Perry – Seguin – Hintz10:41
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:27
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov9:05
xG 0.10–0.70 (12%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Oleksiak14:41
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Johns – Oleksiak2:21
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Johns – Heiskanen17:28
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Weal – Suzuki13:33
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:07
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Armia – Lehkonen – Domi13:17
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Weise – Cousins – Evans7:49
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Scandella14:30
xG 1.19–0.33 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 2–2
- Chiarot – Mete17:30
xG 0.49–0.22 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Kulak14:50
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).