Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 8, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 47 | 29 | 828 |
| CGY | 28 | 114 | 120 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Slater Koekkoek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 2:07CGYSam BennettAssists: Dillon Dube, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 9:17CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.30 xG2–1
- P1 12:57CGYSam BennettAssists: Dillon Dube, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 4:24CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 5:28CHIAlex NylanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P2 10:56CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P2 17:47CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.27 xG5–3
- P2 18:14CHIAlex NylanderAssists: Matthew Highmore · Snap, 0.19 xG6–3
- P3 14:06CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–4
- P3 16:48CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG7–4
- P3 18:59CHIKirby DachAssists: Drake Caggiula, Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.18 xG8–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:12CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:15CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:12CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:21CHIKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:54CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:17CHIOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:32CHIDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P3 16:32CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHighmore – Nylander – Kampf8:43
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach10:22
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter9:55
xG 0.16–0.95 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula8:42
xG 0.10–1.01 (9%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Maatta3:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek14:02
xG 0.68–0.88 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 3–1
- Keith – Boqvist10:56
xG 0.83–1.12 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 3–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:55
xG 1.30–0.48 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:58
xG 0.82–0.39 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–3
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Jankowski4:56
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube11:11
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Kylington2:23
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:50
xG 0.83–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Davidson – Kylington8:21
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).