Sun, Feb 16, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 115 | 07 | 06 | 128 |
| PIT | 29 | 316 | 010 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:58PITSam LaffertyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 14:35PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 2:53PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Andrew Agozzino · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 7:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 11:53PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 13:54DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Larkin – Fabbri16:16
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi13:39
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening11:02
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Perlini – Ehn7:40
xG 0.11–1.00 (10%)attempts 1–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bowey2:40
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bowey – Lindstrom11:34
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Biega – Nemeth12:14
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Agozzino – Lafferty5:30
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – Blueger – Tanev4:27
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Simon16:17
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese5:39
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Riikola12:57
xG 1.21–0.57 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Pettersson19:40
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).