Sun, Feb 16, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 113 | 110 | 334 |
| NYR | 09 | 08 | 19 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:18BOSCharlie McAvoyUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 18:42BOSCharlie CoyleSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–0
- P3 9:52NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:47BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:31NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:06BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:14BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:33NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:23BOSKarson Kuhlman: Interference2 min
- P3 9:05BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:01
xG 0.68–0.54 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:46
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork7:09
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly7:32
xG 0.03–0.40 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy4:58
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:55
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Lauzon5:58
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcKegg – Lemieux – Howden4:52
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko5:44
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fast – Panarin – Chytil2:01
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:57
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:53
xG 0.95–0.33 (74%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba17:40
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Staal – Smith9:39
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).