Sun, Feb 16, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 211 | 03 | 11 | 424 |
| CAR | 110 | 16 | 110 | 05 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12CARTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 6:28EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:19CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:33EDMKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 15:01EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Tyler Benson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 14:58CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:57EDMJosh ArchibaldGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:27CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:14EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:18EDMJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:18CARErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:18CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:34CARErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 10:43EDMColby Cave: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Archibald – Benson11:01
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Granlund – Haas7:37
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Khaira – Cave – Russell8:37
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:23
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 12–14goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:45
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Larsson – Klefbom18:06
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Larsson – Nurse2:02
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Foegele2:28
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov12:46
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 3–1
- Williams – Staal – Foegele9:36
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Dzingel – McGinn – Wallmark4:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Fleury13:21
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce5:06
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce12:54
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).