Sun, Feb 16, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 111 | 27 | 528 |
| VAN | 012 | 120 | 06 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Nick Ritchie, Jacob Larsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:22ANADerek GrantPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 7:25ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Troy Terry, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 11:00VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 5:12ANASam SteelAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 13:44ANABrendan GuhleAssists: Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:13VANTroy Stecher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 13:47ANAKorbinian Holzer: Holding2 min
- P2 6:13VANChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45ANAHampus Lindholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45ANANick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:48ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:57ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Jones11:35
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry9:36
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Shore – Steel8:57
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney10:06
xG 0.35–0.91 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm17:01
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Fowler – Guhle15:52
xG 0.69–1.15 (37%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
- Holzer – Larsson14:05
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Schaller – MacEwen3:43
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Virtanen – Pettersson12:17
xG 0.75–0.37 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat5:52
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – MacEwen8:34
xG 0.56–0.42 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hughes12:30
xG 1.21–0.34 (78%)attempts 23–4goals 0–1
- Myers – Benn9:30
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Edler – Hughes2:42
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).