Sun, Feb 16, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 114 | 09 | 233 |
| WPG | 014 | 215 | 19 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44CHIRyan CarpenterAssists: Patrick Kane, Olli Maatta · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:38WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Jansen Harkins · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:37WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mason Appleton · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:07CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dominik Kubalik · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 1:36WPGNathan BeaulieuGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik6:20
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter8:30
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Dach2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Saad – Carpenter – Nylander3:53
xG 0.01–0.01 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson9:10
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Murphy – Maatta3:31
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Murphy2:42
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHarkins – Roslovic – Appleton12:06
xG 1.15–0.38 (75%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine4:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Bourque – Shore – Chibisov6:09
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine11:54
xG 0.61–0.55 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk16:54
xG 0.92–0.65 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Morrissey2:03
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Beaulieu14:26
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 11–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).