Mon, Feb 17, 2020·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 18 | 311 | 528 |
| SJS | 112 | 013 | 27 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Frank Vatrano, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 11:30SJSDylan GambrellAssists: Antti Suomela, Alexander True · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:00FLAMike HoffmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P3 10:04FLAColton SceviourAssists: Denis Malgin, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 14:34SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:06FLAAnton StralmanGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 18:20SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:55FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:13FLAKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P1 12:58SJSJoel Kellman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:57SJSJoel Kellman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:33FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P2 3:39SJSMarcus Sorensen: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:41SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:07FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:13FLADenis Malgin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Toninato – Vatrano8:20
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Connolly – Malgin7:09
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Acciari11:54
xG 0.19–0.75 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad9:51
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Matheson – Brown6:24
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stralman13:22
xG 0.13–0.73 (15%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Noesen – Goodrow11:12
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Sorensen – Karlsson – Kellman5:52
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Labanc – Meier6:11
xG 0.22–0.81 (22%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek12:08
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Heed – Ferraro12:06
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- Burns – Dillon14:03
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).