Mon, Feb 17, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 38 | 07 | 12 | 427 |
| COL | 110 | 15 | 19 | 03 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:54TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 5:10TBLCameron GaunceUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 13:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brayden Point, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 18:26COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 12:43COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:03TBLNikita KucherovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:28TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:01COLRyan Graves: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:18TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:51COLJ.T. Compher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:51COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:51TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:51TBLMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:29TBLCameron Gaunce: Holding2 min
- P3 14:30TBLAnthony Cirelli: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point14:12
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli10:46
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens6:46
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Maroon – Johnson – Paquette9:23
xG 0.03–0.64 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak15:46
xG 1.43–0.36 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev14:58
xG 0.72–0.78 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gaunce9:01
xG 0.37–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:38
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Nieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare4:18
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon7:26
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Landeskog – Compher5:58
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar2:31
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:49
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov6:59
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).