Tue, Feb 18, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 112 | 014 | 129 |
| PHI | 26 | 15 | 24 | 515 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28PHIKevin HayesAssists: Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:30PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 12:32PHIPhilippe MyersAssists: Travis Sanheim, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 17:21CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 3:40PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Robert Hagg, Joel Farabee · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:14PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 16:15PHIJustin Braun: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:38PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:00CBJNick Foligno: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:39PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bjorkstrand – Stenlund8:30
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Foligno – Jenner5:02
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Dubois – Bemstrom2:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Jenner – Robinson2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Nutivaara17:59
xG 1.01–0.23 (82%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov18:50
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Harrington – Peeke12:38
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Laughton11:52
xG 0.20–0.18 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee12:27
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman8:59
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier12:44
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers16:10
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:26
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Braun – Hagg15:12
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).