Tue, Feb 18, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 015 | 210 | 334 |
| WPG | 011 | 312 | 312 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35LAKDustin BrownAssists: Joakim Ryan, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 13:13WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 17:05WPGMason AppletonAssists: Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 18:33WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 1:21LAKMartin FrkAssists: Jeff Carter, Adrian Kempe · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 5:49WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 15:16LAKDustin BrownAssists: Matt Roy, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 17:43WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–5
- P3 18:31WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Neal Pionk, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:46LAKSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:11WPGTucker Poolman: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:43WPGNathan Beaulieu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:40LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Carter – Frk – Kempe12:04
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Wagner – Moore – Lizotte9:28
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Prokhorkin – Amadio7:17
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:52
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Hutton – Roy16:47
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Ryan – Walker14:15
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 15–9goals 0–3
- Doughty – Forbort16:44
xG 0.23–0.58 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Copp – Ehlers8:21
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers6:14
xG 0.39–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 3–1
- Harkins – Roslovic – Appleton10:45
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine7:59
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey16:38
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Niku10:33
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Morrissey2:11
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).