Wed, Feb 19, 2020·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 010 | 519 | 641 |
| CHI | 012 | 116 | 212 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:29CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:33NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 4:01NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 6:05CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Drake Caggiula, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 8:48NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 9:41NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Slap, 0.21 xG5–2
- P3 11:39CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Alex Nylander · Snap, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 13:37NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:41CHISlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P1 17:54NYRBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:39NYRBrendan Lemieux: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:26CHIRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:31NYRBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:47CHIOlli Maatta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46CHIDrake Caggiula: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin10:55
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko8:02
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:15
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 3–1
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden4:54
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Trouba14:22
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:53
xG 0.92–0.55 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Staal – DeAngelo11:53
xG 0.83–0.89 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 3–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Saad – Carpenter11:32
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach11:15
xG 0.87–1.08 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula8:37
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 12–6goals 2–3
- Highmore – Nylander – Kampf8:19
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Koekkoek9:36
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Keith – Gustafsson3:28
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson10:59
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).