Wed, Feb 19, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 09 | 014 | 11 | 234 |
| EDM | 02 | 018 | 19 | 00 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 3:42EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Ethan Bear, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 1:14BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:56EDMEthan Bear: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:12BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07EDMKailer Yamamoto: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:37EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:49BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:56BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:59BOSKarson Kuhlman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:25EDMKailer Yamamoto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:34BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:30BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak5:54
xG 1.11–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork4:59
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:04
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly5:49
xG 0.11–0.82 (12%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Lauzon8:30
xG 0.94–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy12:21
xG 1.11–0.51 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:04
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Chiasson – Haas6:27
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Khaira – Cave – Russell3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:52
xG 0.99–1.11 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Benson5:50
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones14:12
xG 1.03–0.53 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Benning – Lagesson6:21
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear11:09
xG 0.19–1.41 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).